AFSPA revocation and troop withdrawal: Amit Shah signals a potential shift towards reconciliation in J&K

While the prospect of AFSPA revocation and troop withdrawal has elicited mixed responses, with opposition parties cautiously optimistic yet sceptical about practical implementation, Amit Shah’s statements signify a potential shift towards reconciliation in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently announced that the Centre will consider revoking the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in Jammu and Kashmir. During an interview with JK Media Group, the minister further stated that the government is planning to withdraw troops from the Union Territory, entrusting law and order solely to the Jammu and Kashmir Police. “We have plans to pull back troops and leave law and order to the Jammu and Kashmir Police alone. Earlier Jammu and Kashmir Police were not trusted but today they are leading operations. We will also think of revoking AFSPA,” Shah added.

The AFSPA empowers the armed forces personnel who are operating in disturbed areas with powers to search, arrest and open fire if they deem it necessary for “the maintenance of public order”. An area or district is notified as disturbed under the AFSPA to facilitate the operations of the armed forces. Earlier, Shah had said that the AFSPA has been removed in 70 percent of areas in the North East even though it is in force in Jammu and Kashmir. Shah also attacked opposition leaders Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, saying they don’t have any right to speak on terrorism. “The number of fake encounters that took place during their time has never been matched by any other regime. In the last five years, not a single fake encounter has taken place. Rather the FIRs have been lodged against the people involved in fake encounters,” the minister added. “We will have a dialogue with the youths of Kashmir and not with the organisations that have roots in Pakistan. They are responsible for the deaths of 40,000 youths,” Shah said.

The minister said the Modi government has banned 12 organisations for their involvement in terror activities, designated 36 individuals as terrorists, registered more than 22 cases to stop terror finance and seized properties worth ₹150 crore. As many as 90 properties were also attached and 134 bank accounts have been frozen, he said. The assertions made by the Home Minister have elicited mixed responses from the two main opposition parties – the NC and PDP. While they welcome the possibility of revocation of AFSPA, they have also expressed doubts and scepticism about whether the assertion would translate into practical action on the ground. Obviously, considering that both of these parties share an antagonistic rapport with the ruling BJP, it makes perfect sense that they are not going to accept the Home Minister’s statement without scrutinizing it closely. 

Now, turning to the actual substance of the Home Minister’s messaging, one cannot ignore the fact that perhaps for the first time since August 2019, Amit Shah’s tone has been somewhat reconciliatory about Jammu and Kashmir. Regardless of how political opponents may interpret the developments post-August 2019, there has certainly been a significant shift in the overall situational dynamics in the Himalayan region since the Centre chose to break the disconcerting impasse by revoking the erstwhile state’s special status. Whether the Centre should have taken the actions it did on August 5, 2019, and thereafter, as well as the manner in which these changes were implemented, remains open to academic scrutiny and debate. Inferences drawn and conclusions reached will, of course, differ depending on the political beliefs and leanings of those analyzing the developments.

The same is more or less the case with the current situation in Jammu and Kashmir – depending on their political positions, various protagonists and analysts are drawing equally varied conclusions. That is okay, and encouraging as well. Considering that Amit Shah and the leaders of NC and PDP hold diametrically opposite positions and beliefs about the developments initiated by the August 5, 2019 decisions and carried forward since, their disagreements will certainly be discernible over nearly every claim, promise, or pledge that the government may make.

However, one point on which there should be no disagreement is that August 5, 2019, marked a watershed moment that undeniably altered the otherwise stagnant and impasse-ridden political situation in J&K, injecting it with fresh momentum. The debate over whether these developments were right or wrong can always persist, but prior to August 2019, the situation in J&K exemplified a classic case of a “hurting stalemate,” with the prolonged impasse detrimentally affecting all major stakeholders, particularly the common people of the former state, as well as New Delhi. However, those in control within the separatist-militant circles had developed a significant vested interest in maintaining the status quo, thereby obstructing any progress, whether forward or backward.

Undoubtedly, they acted upon the directives of their overseer, whose sole objective has been to perpetuate turmoil, implementing their ‘thousand cuts’ doctrine to weaken the adversary. The most significant outcome of the decisions made in August 2019 has been the dismantling of this deadlock. Subsequent developments have swiftly produced an unforeseen result – namely, neutralizing the separatists and rendering both them and their politics irrelevant.

Omar Abdullah, his father, Mehbooba Mufti, and her daughter possess every right to dissent against the actions taken by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in J&K. However, they should also acknowledge the statesmanship exhibited by the Modi-Shah duo in freeing Kashmir from the grip of a monstrous creation – the separatist-militant alliance. 

Needless to say, despite the local leaders pandering to them or attempting to keep them in good humour, the separatist-militant ecosystem regarded both these families as mortal enemies and would do everything to undermine and undercut their politics and influence. Given the opportunity, they wouldn’t hesitate to physically harm them. Both families are well aware of this reality, as are all other political groups within the mainstream camp.

Admitting it publicly, though, maybe a bit worrisome for them! Striking off the separatists from Kashmir’s political landscape has certainly been the biggest takeaway so far. Let them agree with it; maybe they won’t, but it does not detract from reality. The fact of the matter is that today the situation in Kashmir has reached a point where Abdullahs and Muftis, Lones and Bukharis can conduct big and open public meetings and rallies in the valley’s hills and dales – something they could not do when they held the reins of power. This, of course, is a remarkable accomplishment, even if one may choose not to give credit where it is due! All the developments that have followed August 2019 have been more or less centred around the administration and its decisions. Reorganization of the erstwhile state, redrawing of assembly and parliamentary constituencies (delimitation), infrastructural push, wooing investors for industrial development, etc., — all these have been administrative decisions, offering very little for the public perception to alter itself. Love it or hate it, the fact remains that public opinions are very receptive to, and easily reworked by political initiatives and decisions. Administrative pronouncements do have an impact, but certainly not as profound as political declarations. So when Amit Shah says they have plans to revoke AFSPA, pull back troops, and leave law and order to the Jammu and Kashmir Police, this is certainly a significant development, indicative of the Centre’s confidence that the situation in J&K has changed (read improved and normalized) for good. While the scepticism of opposition political circles is easily understood, the visible unconcern shown by ordinary people must be a cause for concern. If they too share similar doubts as those held by the NC and PDP and others, it is worrisome.

However, even more, annoying and troubling is when individuals refrain from expressing themselves because they believe their suspicions aren’t shared or their views and opinions do not hold significance. Mr. Amit Shah is a wise individual who understands that effective communication occurs when others comprehend one’s message. If they fail to grasp it, communication is ineffective, irrespective of the words, images, or other forms used. People comprehend things based on their experiences, necessitating one to align with their perspective to effectively communicate.

Furthermore, communication is a two-way process. If you attempt to convey your ideas to others without taking heed of their perspectives, the entire endeavour is futile. If Amit Shah’s statement was intended solely for the political leaders of J&K, then they have voiced their responses. However, if his address was also aimed at the general populace, they have yet to react. It is now incumbent upon Shah and his team to draw suitable conclusions.